As it stands, the AFC looks to have only one vacant wildcard playoff berth. The other of these should be claimed by either the Chiefs or the Broncos. There are four teams legitimately in the hunt for that last ticket to the post-season; the Chargers, Dolphins, and Titans all at 4-4 and the Jets at 5-4. The Browns aren't far behind at 4-5, but it doesn't seem likely that they can sustain enough wins to get to that target record of either 9-7 or 10-6.
The Jets are a tough one to figure. Over the last four weeks, they have lost to a 2-6 Steelers teams, beat a quality New England, were absolutely embarrassed at Cincinnati (49-9), and then pull an unlikely upset against New Orleans. Geno Smith has thrown 8 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. It's difficult to see a team led by a quarterback rating of 71 make a run for the playoffs.
Who knows where the Dolphins will go from here. They've lost two of their starting offensive linemen due to spilled milk. Offensive guard Richie Incognito (who was a pro-bowler last year) and tackle Jonathan Martin are gone indefinitely. It's also tough to see this team tying it's locker room up tight enough to make a run.
Then there's San Diego who have been a bit bi-polar at times as well, losing at Oakland and following it the next week with a win over Indianapolis in which they kept Andrew Luck and the Colts out of the end zone.
All of that being said The Titans certainly have to win themselves, but even with a lot of football left to be played they control their own destiny at this point. The good teams win the games that they should win. Jacksonville is one of those teams that the Titans have to beat and beat soundly. They haven't done that in the past.
The Jaguars went 2-14 in 2012. One of those two wins came against the Titans. Granted the Titans were 6-10 themselves last year, but this year things seem to be different. for the Titans anyway. Now Tennessee has a legitimate shot at the post-season and the Jaguars are win-less through eight games.
This match-up doesn't strike most as a "must win" game but it really is. If Tennessee loses to Jacksonville, not only do they not deserve a playoff spot; they won't get one.
Chad Henne will start at quarterback for the Jags. They are ranked dead last offensively in both points-per-game (10.8) and yards-per-game (286.5) and have recently lost wide receiver Justin Blackmon (who had 415 of those yards) for the year for violating the NFL's substance abuse policy.
On the flip-side, it seems that the Titans have finally found their running game. Chris Johnson logged 23 carries for 150 yards and two touchdowns against the Rams and Shonn Greene went for 38 yards on nine carries and a touchdown. Jake Locker (who was stagnant in the passing game) added another score on the ground.
If Tennessee continues to click in the ground game, it doesn't bode well for the the Jacksonville defense who rank last in the NFL in rushing defense giving up 161 yards a game.
The Titans defense is ranked ninth in points allowed (20.9 per game) and 11th in yards allowed (340.2 per game). Numbers do lie sometimes, but for the purposes of breaking down this week's match-up, they should hold true. Good teams win games that they should win.
numbers courtesy of NFL.com
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